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An article in the Journal of the American Medical Association in 1997 reported that, when people go to their doctor's office with a sore throat and think they might have strep throat, 30% actually have strep throat.  It noted that a current test for strep throat was 80% accurate if you have strep throat and 90% accurate if you do not.  The following conditional probability tree diagram shows a person who may or may not have strep throat (B) and his/her test results (A).  A is a positive and not A is a negative test result.  What is the probability that a person will test positive?  (write your answers in decimal form)What is P(not A) = What is the probability of a false negative? 

An Article In The Journal Of The American Medical Association In 1997 Reported That When People Go To Their Doctors Office With A Sore Throat And Think They Mig class=

Answer :

B is may or may not have step throat.

A is the result of the test.

The probability that a person will test positive is the addition of the test being positive either when it may or nay not have the desease, Then:

[tex]0.24+0.07=0.31[/tex]

The probability of not A is:

[tex]0.06+0.63=0.69[/tex]

The probability of a false negative is the complement of the above, then:

[tex]1-0.69=0.31[/tex]

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